OPEC ups forecast for 2017 world oil demand

OPEC expects world oil demand to increase by 1.19 million barrels per day to average 95.81 million barrels per day in 2017, the cartel said in its monthly oil market report published Feb. 13.

In its previous monthly report published in January, OPEC forecast global oil demand to grow by 1.16 million barrels per day and reach 95.60 million barrels per day in 2017.

“For 2017, global oil demand growth was revised higher by around 35,000 barrels per day,” the report said, adding this was a result of colder weather conditions and healthy vehicle sales in OECD Europe, in addition to improved assumptions for petrochemical feedstock requirements in OECD Asia Pacific.

OPEC noted that several assumptions have been considered in 2017 projections. Firstly, global economic activities are anticipated to rise by around 3.2 percent with economic development in the OECD region rising solidly above 2016 levels.

Secondly, road transportation is anticipated to continue to be the driving factor for oil demand growth in 2017, primarily as a result of anticipated high vehicle sales in the US, Europe, China and India.
Thirdly, the expanding petrochemical sectors in the US and China are projected to lend support to petrochemical feedstock.

On the other hand, efficiencies, supported by technological advancements, are forecast to partly hinder increases in transportation sector fuel requirements and to a lesser extent in the residential sector. Potential reductions in subsidies are expected to have a negative impact on oil consumption.

Additionally, substitution by other fuels is also accounted for in the 2017 oil demand projections.

OECD oil demand is anticipated to increase by around 0.2 million barrels per day, with OECD Americas and Europe being firmly in the positive, while Asia Pacific is expected to continue to decline. The non-OECD growth is expected to be around 1 million barrels per day.

In 2016 global oil demand hit 94.62 million barrels per day, according to OPEC. The upward revision for 2016 was primarily a reflection of better-than-expected data from OECD Europe and Asia Pacific with support coming from the petrochemical sector and colder-than-anticipated weather.


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