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Presidential election in Iran will bring the West unpleasant surprises – expert
Activeness in the upcoming elections in Iran will be high, and the 2009 figure of 85%, will be beaten, known Russian expert Igor Pankratenko told 1news.az, commenting on the possible impact of the U.S. and the West on the elections in Iran.
According to him, this high turnout will bring enough unpleasant surprises to the West.
"In my opinion, the West overestimated the impact of sanctions on Iranian society and underestimated the importance of the nuclear program for the Iranians. According to the concept of "authors", the sanctions would lead to the fact that the Iranian people will turn away from their leadership. Barack Obama talked a lot about his respect for the Iranian people and that the West wishes them well-being.
But no one has yet been able to explain why the sanctions against the regime in the first place hit the country's population.
In turn, international observers have noted that the sanctions in the first place, cause a "comprehensive, adverse effects on the living conditions of the population and the economy", in particular - rising unemployment, accelerating inflation, rising prices. Iranians see who the real culprit in deterioration of their well-being is.
They see and another thing - that the West does not respond to the peace initiatives of Iran, as it was in the last talks in Almaty, when Iran agreed on almost all the proposals of the "5 +1", said the analyst.
According to the Russian expert, destructive impact, aimed to weaken Iran, split the Iranian society ad destabilize it occurs daily from external global players such as the United States and the West.
And the response can wait no longer. In the face of external pressure, the same effect that the West and its allies (from the monarchies of the Gulf to Israel) daily have on the Iran, it is quite expected that the Iranian society will consolidate around the leadership, around Rahbar, since the president is not the first figure of Iran," said Pankratenko.
According to the expert, the pro-Western opposition - the so-called liberal wing of the Iranian political elite has little chance in the upcoming election.
"Green", Mousavi and Karroubi, will not be allowed to the election which will be a natural consequence of the marginalization of the "green movement". The chances of reformers of the "nest Rafsanjani" seem to be also somewhat exaggerated. I think that the main event will still take place in the square of Velayati-Qalibaf Adel-Rezai," suggested the expert.
At the same time, the he expressed conviction about the undeclared "cold" war unfolded by opponents of this state.
According to him, in the fact that the current regime in Tehran must be overturned, there is no contradiction between Washington and Tel Aviv.
The contradictions here are merely tactical in nature and are associated with a kind of "division of labour" between the Americans and the Israelis in an undeclared war against Iran, which does not stop even for one day.
"The US in this tandem has assumed the role of senior partner who solves the problems of strategic level: working to raise the mode of" crippling sanctions ", is working on involving to this mode the maximum possible number of countries, monitors compliance with the mode and financial and legal punishment of dissidents, forms obedient majority in the UN, coordinates and directs the activities of the IAEA and supports the desired tone of the anti-Iranian hysteria in the media.
A kind of "decency" of this activity should not be misleading. If necessary, thin skin of decency will be removed, giving way to the principle of "the end justifies the means".
And then there is an exception from the list of terrorist organizations "People's Mujahedin of Iran" and unfreezing of their accounts (they even walk in the forefront of the fifth column of fighters for democracy in Iran).
In this case, the shell companies created by special services deliver to Iran batch of computers with malicious filling (in cyberwar it is important to strike first).
Accordingly, the U.S. drones begin overflying Iranian territory, and in countries where Iranians go on holiday appear "quiet Americans" recruiting agents," said the analyst.
Judging by the statements of the Russian expert, the undeclared war of the United States and Israel against Iran is known to all as great game that will end, in the words of the classic, "only after all are dead".
However, the expert assessed the current political situation in Iran as stable.
"The system of government remains stable and the majority of the population supports the existing system," concluded the Russian expert.
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