Heydar Mirza

In the political environment of Armenia, there is an increasing demand to abandon further negotiations with Azerbaijan over Karabakh. How serious are these conversations and what can they lead to?

Threat of an exit from the negotiations is a mythical tool of diplomatic pressure, inflated artificially in the Armenian society. It began to unwind actively from late 2000s, when the military balance began to change in favour of Azerbaijan. This tool is intended for domestic consumption. I wrote about it in one of my last comments, and will tell you again - neither Sargsyan nor his clique are masters of their country. At least not enough to get out of the negotiation process. It's impossible.

Is the threat of ASALA terrorists to Azerbaijani diplomats serious, while in our time, when the hidden information becomes easily available to the public,  the terrorists do not hide their threats?

ASALA is a terrorist organization. Any terrorist organization can implement an effective deterrent and punitive action only in a favourable policy, in the first place, in the foreign policy context. Today there is no such context. But vigilance should not be lost. This is the last thing we should do. ASALA is able to blow up a subway station and buses, shoot diplomats and their families. There are many examples in recent history.

Can the government of Armenia recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan, as called for by some political forces?

It would mean only one thing - the resumption of active military actions by Azerbaijan, since it will not leave us any other option. I do not believe that Yerevan will go to such a suicidal step. See my comments on the first question.

How will all this history with Azerbaijani officer Ramil Safarov affect the image of the regime of Serzh Sargsyan in the country?

Undoubtedly, ratings of current head of state increased even more, which undoubtedly is the result of the active role that President Ilham Aliyev has played in extradition and the release of Ramil Safarov.

This story also boosted confidence of the Azerbaijani society in the effectiveness of the country's foreign structure, its intelligence, as well as the effectiveness of information and analytical support of senior government officials.

Of course, the release and extradition of Ramil Safarov does not directly affect the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. This success is symbolic in nature. Ramil Safarov is a victim of the conflict, who was forced to go on the offense duo to humiliation and abuse of his people. For our part, the important thing was the very symbolism of extradition and release of Safarov, a demonstration of strength and will of Azerbaijan to the enemy, demonstration of the authority of our leadership and demonstration of impotence of the Armenian side in opposing it. The sense of bilious anger from powerlessness to change anything still will often visit high offices in Yerevan and Armenian public debates on social networks.

F.H.
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