How could you, as the author of an article titled “Ignoring Azerbaijan could cost the US” published by The Washington Times, explain US policy of ignoring Azerbaijan?

My article suggests that if we go down the path of ignoring Azerbaijan and our allies in the Caucuses, American interests will be imperiled.  No doubt, the Obama Administration is dealing with unprecedented domestic and international challenges and recently the President himself has become personally engaged Mid-East peacemaking.  But at a time when Azerbaijan is playing such an important strategic role, I suggest we need to spend more time focusing on what has been going in the South Caucuses, particularly with the dangerous stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Can Azerbaijan be another US loss in the post-soviet space (after Georgia, Ukraine and some Central Asian republics)?

I would not characterize it in this way. I do not think we lost Georgia, Ukraine, or any other Central Asian republic. That said, I think Washington needs to spend more time focusing on this crucially important region.  Azeris care about the relationship with the United States and see America is a natural ally.  I think Georgians and other Central Asian Republics look at Washington in the same. It is also incumbent on Washington to sustain and enhance these relationships.

What is Azerbaijan for the US and its interests? And what would you suggest to improve bilateral relations?

There is no doubt that since the tragic events of 9/11, Central Asia has become a strategic focal point of American global security architecture.  The war in Afghanistan has been going on for over nine years, and Azerbaijan has been a good partner to the U.S. and NATO in this regard.  There are shared interests on energy production and security, and because Azerbaijan shares a border with Iran, there are political and intelligence aspects to this relationship.

I think visible attention to this relationship will go a long way to build public confidence and interest in the relationship.  Secretaries Clinton and Gates have recently visited Baku and met with President Aliev. These are constructive steps.  I think having a full time ambassador in Baku is crucial.

American Armenians tried to persuade US administration that Mr. Matthew Bryza shouldn’t become the US Ambassador to Azerbaijan. Do you believe that the administration will overcame this pressure?

This is very unfortunate. Bryza is one of the best Foreign Service Officers the State Department has ever produced.  There is a wide consensus in Washington that he is the best American government official to serve in this role.  He has access to and credibility with all the players in the region. He is now the latest casualty of character assassination and smear.  I would be surprised if he was not confirmed later this month but this is a very contentious election cycle and stranger things have happened here in Washington.

Russia is now very active in the Karabakh settlement. Don’t you think that there is a threat that Russia will been pushing US out of the settlement process to have hegemony in the region?

I think longtime observers have seen a resurgent Russia trying to increase its sphere of influence. The war in Georgia two years ago and the enormous pressure Moscow exerted on Poland, Czech Republic, and the U.S. over American plans to place a missile defense program in Central Europe is part of Russia’s foreign policy.  There is no doubt that the Kremlin wants to play a role in any direct negotiations between Baku and Yerevan, but we should not fear this development so long as America is engaged in the region. I think that together Moscow and Washington could play a constructive role in helping the sides reach a reasonable and workable solution to the NK issue.  No matter what, Washington’s engagement is critical.

Are you sure that Russia and US really want the Karabakh conflict to be resolved and thus lose their leverage in relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia?

I do not think people in Washington make these calculations.  What policymakers here focus on is a workable and sustainable solution to the conflict that will also help advance American interests in the region. Undoubtedly, if the conflict heats up and violence increases, American interests will be undermined when the Obama Administration is making a push to gain the upper hand in Afghanistan.  I also do not think Russia is interested a resumption of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But there is no doubt that Russia wishes to play a large role in any process that will lead to political resolution of the NK conflict.

Guy Billauer, an international relations consultant and lawyer who spent over a decade with the American Jewish Committee focusing on political developments in Central and Eastern Europe.

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az