Yuriy Bocharov

Some experts believe the main event in the Russian President’s visit to Azerbaijan was the signing of the final document on the state border, others say it is the agreement on raising volumes of export of Azerbaijani gas to Russia, while the rest say that by his visit to Yerevan and Baku Medvedev showed to the West that Russia is the main power in the region. And what are your impressions of Medvedev’s visit?

There is a saying “To do a good face in a bad game”, which means to try to conceal trouble and problems under external calmness. Russia has troubles in both political and especially economic sense. But it needs, if exactly, it ‘wants’ to play a role of the leading political force not only in our region. President Medvedev is striving to show his international importance on the background of the “working” success (and shortages) of Premier Putin.

I think the whole visit is a formality, Moscow’s attempt to justify itself for Armenian projects. In fact, Moscow had nothing to offer Baku except for its explanations. From here come the so-called projects of the century. Have there been any differences on delimitation of state border? Is this the level of presidents? On the background of the volumes of oil products supplies to other countries and Iran’s intention to get up to 10 bn cubic meters of gas a year, the new agreement with Russia for supply of 2 bn cubic meters of gas seems not too significant. In fact, President Aliyev by his actions has “saved Dmitriy Medvedev’s image” by his actions, like we say in the East by signing a number of protocols thus making this a state visit. Let’s take into the essence of Russia’s economic offers in the sphere of energy sources. We can view this either a bribe to Azerbaijan for their pro-Armenian policy or as a long-term project on the settlement of their own interests. 

Why did Gazprom proposes the allegedly extremely favorable economic offers by means of which Azerbaijan can sell its gas by European prices paying to Russia only for transportation. Here we see Russia’s intention to fill its pipelines by 100% since it does not only bring tens of millions of dollars a year to its treasury but also freezes construction of alternative ways of oil supplies to Europe. In fact, Russia wants to transit all Azerbaijani energy sources by any means even by raising the amount of deals in order to remain the main supplier of energy sources, which means to be the main player in the European space. Meanwhile, Gazprom’s offer to purchase share of BP which is operating the BTC pipeline shows Russia’s intention to control others’ oil flows. 

Which goals do you think Russia pursues by ensuring its long-term military presence in Ukraine and Armenia?

Like most superpowers of the world Russia pursues only its own state interests.

In any form Russia is losing its influence in the Caucasus and in the entire Middle East. Today the military base in Gryumri (Armenia) is factually its last bastion in the region which helps it control the air space of Turkey, Iran, Georgia, Azerbaijan and defend its borders at a distance.

Meanwhile, Sevastopol is the last serious marine base of Russia in the Black Sea. After losing it, Russia will lose the Black and Mediterranean Seas and along with them its influence in the Middle East.

Today Russia is taking huge efforts to preserve its influence in the region including supplies of free arms to Armenia and the writing off Ukraine’s debt partially.

On the other hand, where can Armenia surrender, who needs it in its current state? Who wants to be friends with it and why? The leading geopolitical players view Armenia only as their platform in the Caucasus. 

Do you think it is possible to believe Russian leadership who states that the recently signed agreement on the Russian military base in Armenia is not targeting Azerbaijan?

What does sincerity of people who are willing to rule the world mean?

Though the tasks of the 102nd Russian military base provide for the strategic stability of Russia’s external border, we should not forget that they are equipped with anti-missile S-300 complexes and MiG-29 fighters while the staff is about 5,000 people. Meanwhile, according to different sources, almost the whole staff consists of Russian citizens of Armenian ethnic. In fact, the base is de-facto a part of the Armenian armed forces, supported by Russian money and technique. So whose interests will the base defend in case of the armed conflict?

Though Russia will hardly intervene into the armed conflict in the territory of NKO, it cannot be said about the Armenian armed forces including the soldiers of the 102nd ‘Russian’ military base. 

Why do you think Russia is raising its military cooperation with Armenia and simultaneously agrees to export S-300 complexes to Azerbaijan?

As they say: “Nothing personal, only business!”

We should not forget that Russia is the world’s second arms suppliers after the United States, while its revenues from the military industrial complex occupy a significant place in its budget after supplies of energy sources and crude. In addition, Russia is obliged to supply arms to Armenia free of charge, while it can get the real price from Azerbaijan. In addition, according to other estimates, it is the same S-300 complex, which Russia was trying to supply to Iran but could not do this because of sanctions. It means that if Azerbaijan gets it, this will rescue Russia once again.

I would like to draw your attention to a number of other military proposals received from Russia, in particular, on modernization of MiGs and tanks, supply of missile boats and other accompanying military technique. In fact, the geopolitical importance of Azerbaijan and ‘unstable’ neighbors obliges the country to raise its military potential all the time. However, due to existence of many proposals of the leading arms dealers, I think Azerbaijan may get additional privileges as a “gratitude” for each purchase of this kind especially that it has a choice between the United States, Turkey, Israel and Ukraine. Thus, Russia has someone to compete while Azerbaijan has someone to choose between.

Can we believe the Russian president who says Russia, as the Caucasus state, is extremely interested in the soonest resolution of the Karabaakh conflict and therefore, it will further take measures for settlement?

The life in the Middle East taught me not to believe any word. I would not say that Russia is interested in the full scale war. In fact, no one, even very odious regimes, are interested in such a war. However, no one is against local wars, especially if they are controlled. All leading arms dealers are interested in international conflicts and they constantly encourage their participants in their intention to arm and get military superiority and then try to settle the problem.

Unfortunately, unless there is the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan will be interested in ‘partnership’ with both Russia and America and will have to take account of their strategic interests. On the other hand, Russia will be obliged to take into account Azerbaijan’s interests in other spheres and other neighbors by trying to prove its importance in the region to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan must be able to take advantage of this moment and settle at least a part of its problems.

How will this Russia’s intensification influence the South Caucasus and a wider region?

In fact, in the Caucasus Russia is trying to apply the US model of conduct in the Middle East and in particular in the issue of Israel-Palestine confrontation. The negotiations here are also intensified only in period of election campaigns in both America and Israel. The periodical intensification of hostilities up to local wars and everything goes anew. In the result, all neighbors are obliged to rearm in order to “preserve: the military parity which is constantly violated by either America or Russia.

For example, it is proven that in period of the second Lebanese war the terror organization of Hezbollah fought against Israel by “Russian” arms supplied to Syria. Meanwhile, today Russia is trying to supply Syria with new missile complexes and Jachont missiles intended to fight ships at a distance of up to 300 kilometers and capable of carrying warheads of up to 200 kg. Israel considers not without grounds that they may get to Hezbollah terrorists and therefore it starts discussing purchase of new fighters in America which immediately causes the protest of Egypt and Jordan who are allegedly losing military parity. In the result, America is “obliged” to modernize their armed forces. So, who has gained here?

See how differently the military capacities of Caspian littoral states are declared today, how many publications about ships and cruisers of different countries there are in press. There are so many proposals for modernization of their marine fleet. Don’t you think that we have already seen this script?

However, seeing such a Middle Eastern script of developments, Azerbaijan can make right conclusions and become an independent player in its region especially that it has the economic component and political opportunities for this step.

Yuri Bocharov is political technologist, PR-manager (Israel), foreign member of the Russian academy of natural science, member of a number of expert councils of Israel and Russia.

W.W.
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