Rasim Musabeyov

A protocol extending the term of the Russian military base in Armenia will be signed during Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to Yerevan, which starts this evening. Does the visit pose any threat to Azerbaijan’s security?

There is no obvious threat. Moreover, I think that this agreement, the extension of which was agreed from the outset, is being signed just to give some substance to the Russian president's visit. This is clear since Armenia has nothing. They can prolong the agreement by 49 years and again by 100 years if Medvedev’s subsequent visit is to have any point. This does not change anything. The sides can carry on signing senseless papers for 149 years.

Azerbaijan and Turkey concluded an agreement on strategic partnership and mutual assistance this week, while a similar agreement between Yerevan and Moscow is planned for Medvedev’s visit to Armenia. Do you think the conflicting sides are trying to get the support of their allies in the event of a resumption of hostilities in Karabakh?

On paper, yes, but in reality, the correlation of powers is not changed by documents, wherever and by whomsoever they may be signed, but by who has the greater financial and democratic resources. Things aren't good for Armenia in this respect. They have already cancelled the deferment of conscription for students, because they don't have anyone to staff the army while half-starving soldiers have already started to go AWOL. Signed documents won't change these things.

What is the possibility of Turkey getting involved in the conflict?

I don't think the Turks will immediately start to get involved in the conflict or that Russia will be involved. I think involvement is possible only if a disastrous situation arises for one of the parties.

What's your interpretation of the incident in June in which Mubariz Ibrahimov killed four Armenian soldiers on the front line? He was subsequently declared a national hero, but his body has yet to be returned by Armenia.

There was no incident, there was no sabotage group and no operation. Mubariz had been kicked out of the special forces and sent to the front line, to Geranboy, as a punishment. He "lost it" there, wanting to show the new recruits his heroism - “Look at me, I'm Rambo”. That's what happened. And today the Armenians are ashamed to admit that one Azerbaijani soldier killed four Armenians and injured another four.

What's the most likely, a resumption of war or a breakthrough in the resolution of the conflict? There has been both instability on the front line and increased diplomatic efforts lately.

A full stop has yet to be put to the negotiating round on the basis of the Madrid principles [for a settlement of the conflict]. I think this will happen during the OSCE summit in Kazakhstan.

What can be expected from Medvedev’s visit to Azerbaijan in September?

I think he's unlikely to come empty-handed, unlike to Armenia with which different sham agreements that do not change reality are signed. The Armenians do not have the means to see through their projects, not even to meet the current budget.

But Russia's interest in Azerbaijan is obvious. In these conditions one should not arrive empty-handed. I think Medvedev's main objective in Yerevan is to try to bring the Armenians round to the Madrid principles on the Karabakh settlement that were submitted in Athens a year ago and to which the Armenians have yet to give a clear response. It means that he will have something to bring to Azerbaijan for serious discussion. I would like to repeat that there is something to talk about in Azerbaijan, unlike Armenia. Otherwise, he would come here and the hospitable Azerbaijani people would welcome him, as they did ex-President Yeltsin after his resignation. We showed him Baku and sent him back.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az