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Against the backdrop of rising tensions around Iran, the redeployment of US forces to the Middle East, and increasingly alarming discussions about the possibility of a limited ground operation, a sober, professional, and strategically calibrated external perspective is especially important. How realistic is Washington’s reliance on a ground operation scenario? Where is the line between military pressure and preparation for a major war? And could the White House attempt to turn even a limited tactical episode into a political “victory”?01 Apr 2026-09:37
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The Middle East is once again entering a phase of dangerous military uncertainty, where a single vessel can alter both the operational balance and the psychology of the conflict. The arrival of the USS Tripoli in the region has already raised a series of questions: is this a show of force, preparation for targeted operations, or a sign of a broader escalation strategy by Washington?31 Mar 2026-12:46
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Iran is unlikely to pursue full escalation but may opt for a controlled expansion of the conflict, targeting energy infrastructure to shift it into the economic sphere. A full-scale invasion remains improbable given Iran’s capabilities and terrain. However, prolonged tensions risk destabilising the South Caucasus, potentially triggering security challenges, placing strain on infrastructure, and leading to refugee flows.30 Mar 2026-00:10
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The conflict surrounding Iran has entered a dangerous phase, increasingly resembling a full-scale regional war rather than a limited operation. Tehran maintains that it is acting in self-defense, demonstrating resilience despite sustained strikes on infrastructure and leadership. Iranian authorities emphasize systemic stability and rapid recovery capacity. While the risks of further escalation, including potential ground operations, remain, Iran signals readiness and insists the conflict will continue until perceived threats are fully eliminated.20 Mar 2026-11:00
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Israel’s strikes on Iranian missile boats in the Caspian Sea have once again brought regional security discussions to the forefront. Amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, incidents in the Caspian direction raise the possibility of an expansion in the geographical scope of the conflict.19 Mar 2026-21:53
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In the context of the ongoing escalation around Iran, one trend is becoming increasingly clear: the scenario on which the initiators of the attack appear to have relied is showing signs of strain. Rather than a rapid collapse of the Iranian state, the world is witnessing a consolidation of society, a rise in resistance, and the emergence of new foreign policy dynamics, with China standing out in particular.18 Mar 2026-11:19
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Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Kyiv has begun reassessing its approach toward Tehran. Recent contacts between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and exiled Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi, as well as increasingly sharp rhetoric from Iranian officials toward Ukraine, reflect the complex dynamics shaping relations between the two countries.16 Mar 2026-10:52
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Madia Torebayeva, editor of the analytical portal Cronos.Asia, shared her views on the prospects for cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, and the growing geopolitical importance of the Middle Corridor.14 Mar 2026-11:12
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Debate continues in Armenia after it was suggested that the country should join a union with Russia similar to the Union State model. Critics say such a move could significantly limit national sovereignty, while others argue that Armenia has recently been strengthening its independence and pursuing a political course aimed at stability and long-term regional peace.14 Mar 2026-09:54
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