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Thu 18 March 2010 | 08:40
POLITICS
Fickle Armenian lobby not so powerful

Tue 09 February 2010 | 14:55 GMT Text size:

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Adil Baguirov

News.Az interviews Dr Adil Baguirov, managing director and co-founder of the US Azeris Network (USAN).

What is USAN doing about the United States census in 2010?

The US Azeris Network (USAN), as well as our sister organization the US Turkic Network (USTN), became the first-ever not only Azerbaijani-American, but also Turkic-American organizations to be recognized officially as partners by the US Census Bureau for the 2010 Census. We immediately started raising awareness and promoting this partnership as well as the need to participate in the Census among the Azerbaijani-American and Turkic-American community. We will continue this in the next few months before and after the census starts.

US First Assistant Secretary of State James Steinberg thinks that the Karabakh conflict can be settled on the basis of two principles of international law. He said during his recent visit to Yerevan: “I believe that the simultaneous use of the right of nations to self-determination and territorial integrity is possible.” Doesn't this
contradict Washington's official position on the recognition of Karabakh as Azerbaijani land?

There is no problem between the two principles, and that's why Azerbaijan agrees to resolve the occupation of Karabakh and other lands of Azerbaijan based on the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, which stipulated both of the principles, since they don't interfere with each other; indeed, the principle of territorial integrity trumps the principle of self-determination. More specifically, there is a principle of international law uti possidetis juris, which in the opinion of such eminent international law experts as Prof. Malcolm Shaw applies directly to all post-Soviet countries, specifically to Armenia and Azerbaijan. This principle postulates that all newly formed sovereign states should have the same borders that they had before. Additional in-depth research and commentary have been provided by top Azerbaijani legal experts, such as Dr Vugar Seidov, Dr Fuad Ahundov, Tofiq Musayev (LL.M) and M. Mammadov (LL.M).

There is simply no doubt that international law is very clear on this issue, and it's on Azerbaijan's side. Karabakh, whether Mountainous, or Lowland, along with Kerki (an exclave of Naxcivan), the two exclaves of the Gazakh region of Azerbaijan and its villages that are also occupied by Armenia, are all de jure part of Azerbaijan, have been recognized as such by the UN, and must be returned to Azerbaijan.
 
Leaders of the US Azerbaijani diaspora recently met a group of New York senators to discuss Azerbaijan. It is the third year that USAN has been involved in such a meeting. Is it possible to talk of real interest of US law-makers, especially Democrats, in the problems of Azerbaijan despite the strong Armenian resistance?
 
I would view the importance of such regular meetings as an affirmation of our community's growing political activism, and as a consequence, the inevitable noting of this by the members of Congress, who see us more and more at various venues and are greatly impressed by the depth and quality of our arguments, by the education that we provide to them on the issues that we consider very important for us, as well as for regional and international peace and the prestige and moral standing of the United States. But the number one rule for any member of Congress is that "all politics is local", hence, if the Armenian community is more active (for any reason) driving its point across, then members of Congress will be more prone to listen to it.

It's somewhat understandable that a member of Congress would have a pro-Armenian and anti-Azerbaijani position if he/she is visited more often by the Armenian community or receives thousands of dollars in political contributions from the Armenian lobby. Unfortunately, every single one of such members of Congress are affected by this scourge of the political process - Armenian special interest groups, a lobby, that buys access and forces members to take a certain position.
 
US Congressmen are planning to discuss the resolution on the “Armenian genocide” in Ottoman Turkey in 1915. Will this resolution be adopted and how may it influence the recognition of the “genocide” by the White House?
 
There is a possibility, considering that all the Democratic leadership of Congress - Speaker Pelosi, Con. Berman, Sen. Reid, Sen. Durbin, Sen. Menendez, Sen. Kerry - are on the record strongly supporting the Armenian community in general, and all of their agenda in particular. At the same time, elections in November are expected to create a big change, with Republicans retaking control of many seats in the US Senate and US House (the two chambers of the US Congress), and American voters get angry when Congress is preoccupied with foreign history instead of creating jobs and improving the economy. Obviously, considering the economic weight of Turkey, and the huge bilateral trade between the US and Turkey (Turkey is the United States' 39th largest goods trading partner), bilateral trade has been steadily growing over the last 15 years. US-Turkey two way goods trade totalled $14.6 billion in 2008 and the US would not want that burgeoning trade to come to a standstill.

But there is also something interesting happening this election cycle in US politics, just like in 2008. Back then, an Armenian candidate, Dr Jack Kevorkian, affectionately known as Doctor Death, decided to challenge Congressman Knollenberg and take his seat in the House of Representatives, despite the fact that Rep. Knollenberg was a co-chairman of the Armenian Caucus and a big friend of the Armenian community. In this interesting twist of misfortune, both cancelled out each others' efforts and lost the elections to another candidate, Gary Peters. Also, back then the Armenian community supported and endorsed the then presidential candidate, Sen. Obama during the primary in California and other states, but Sen. Obama actually lost those primaries to Sen. Clinton, in spite of the support from the Armenian community. It shows that even in California the 500,000-strong Armenian community cannot "move elections" unless they are local elections centering on Glendale.

This year, the same thing has happened - in the special elections in Massachusetts, the Armenian community supported Democrat Martha Coakley, whilst the Azerbaijani community, led by the efforts of the USAN "2008 Outstanding Leadership Award" recipient Dr John Vafai, who spearheaded a political initiative "Azerbaijanis for Scott Brown", supported the underdog, Republican nominee Scott Brown. Mr Brown won and was sworn in last week. Likewise, this year, despite all the dedicated support and service that Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) has given to the Armenian community, they have officially endorsed his opponent, Jerry Tarkanian, who will try to send Sen. Reid into retirement.

This is reminiscent of 1996, when the Armenian community saw the polls and realized that their favourite and officially endorsed Sen. Dole was inevitably losing the presidential race to Bill Clinton, they switched their support within one month of the elections. Of course, Bill Clinton was easily re-elected for a second term. Later, during the first term of President George W. Bush the Armenian community also tried to show its relevance and alleged that they supported Bush's candidacy, but Bush's trusted advisor and "architect" Karl Rove quickly shot down that feeble allegation to the public embarrassment of the Armenian lobby. The Armenian community "retaliated" by supporting Sen. Kerry in 2004, but of course their support once again proved to be non-essential, and President Bush won.

All this shows how ungrateful and not-so-powerful the Armenian lobby really is, and how the combined Turkic-American community and our friends can stop its destructive activity which counters US national interests and regional stability.

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az







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