Teymur Atayev

What can be expected from Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman's current visit to Baku?

In anticipation of the minister's visit to Azerbaijan, Israeli ambassador Michael Lavon-Lotem said that last year's contracts on military and technical cooperation along with the rapidly growing trade between the countries had turned Israel and Azerbaijan into strategic allies. The creation of a plant to produce pilotless reconnaissance jets and assemble modern military hardware in Azerbaijan was discussed in depth during the visit of Israeli President Shimon Peres to Baku in 2009. Liberman has expressed his support for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. He listed the development of political and economic ties, in particular, the creation of an interparliamentary commission on economic cooperation, as the main goals of the negotiations. The minister also spoke about expanding energy relations, which is not surprising considering the supplies of Caspian oil to Tel Aviv. An event at the embassy to present Israeli fashion and cosmetics companies to Azerbaijan is also part of this. But, let’s admit that the social and cultural background is hardly a basis for the development of bilateral relations, especially in the light of the deterioration in the traditionally good relations between Turkey and Israel.

Are the current problems in relations between Israel and Turkey serious? Is there hope for improvement?

The recent Istanbul negotiations between Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak and his Turkish counterpart, Vecdi Gonul, on a 200-million contract for the purchase of Heron drones by Turkey shows the significant potential in the bilateral negotiations. The Israeli Defence Ministry held consultations at the Copenhagen climate conference with the Turkish ambassador to Israel, Ahmet Oguz Celikkol, on returning mutual relations between the countries to their previous level. But it is impossible to imagine relations at their previous level today. We should not forget that, according to Israeli officials and in particular Liberman, Ankara will not mediate in the Syrian-Israeli negotiations. "If you think that after [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan's comments [about Israel] we would agree to Turkish mediation, even if it meant smiles and visits, forget about it," Liberman said. He made these remarks for the first time at a conference of the heads of Israeli diplomatic missions organized by the Foreign Ministry.

May these differences be backed by third powers? Turkey and Israel used to be considered close regional allies.

It’s very difficult to say that Israel and Turkey are independent in the choice of their own foreign policy. It was no chance event that scientist Stuart David Nozette, who worked at the White House on the National Space Council, for the Pentagon and the US space agency NASA and other influential structures, was arrested and charged with attempting to pass classified information to someone whom he considered to be an Israeli spy. This is not the first time that such discord has occurred in US-Israeli relations and it does not always appear spontaneously.

May the developments change the attitude of the Jewish side to the events of 1915 that the Armenians are trying to present to the world as “genocide”?

Forces in Washington are trying to raise the issue of the “Armenian genocide”. The world's press has recently been full of screaming headlines such as “US may recognize Armenian massacres in Ottoman Empire”, “Armenian and Jewish community leaders in US start collection of signatures on petition to Barack Obama and Congress”. But they do not specify which Jewish community this is. Indeed, the resolution has already been submitted to Congress and it is to be considered in the relevant committee. It is worth noting that the constant use of the “1915 genocide” card by the West is, paradoxically, targeted at Israel rather than Turkey for which the “Kurdish problem” is used as the sword of Damocles. If those events are recognized as historical fact, the Jewish genocide of the Second World War will almost be downgraded, whether anyone agrees with it or not. Washington is certainly not interested in any anti-Israeli decision in this regard, but no one would blame it for using the context as pressure on Tel Aviv.

It's become commonplace recently for relations between Israel and the United States not to always run smoothly. Suffice it to recall the case of Nozette, and a similar case a few years ago when a Pentagon desk officer on the Middle East and South Asia, Larry Franklin, was accused of passing secret information to Israeli diplomats and two representatives of AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the Israeli lobby in the US. But the Jewish situation in the United States can be seen from the other side, that is, there is room for delicate maneouvring here. In 1997 Heydar Aliyev said during an official reception organized by the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in his honour that the Azerbaijani lobby in the United States “will become our friends, including the Jewish community”. Last year AIPAC was seeking the abolition of the Jackson-Vanick and Section 907 amendments regarding official Baku (Section 907 to the Freedom Support Act, at present suspended, bans direct US aid to the Azerbaijani government). On the other hand, Liberman’s visit is taking place against a background of the United States' growing anti-Iranian rhetoric.

A leading Israeli export on Iran, Menashe Amir, earlier rejected Tehran’s statements about Azerbaijan’s transformation “into a test ground for Israeli reconnaissance and that Israeli spies feel at home in the country’s south” and said Israel was not very active in this regard. It is symptomatic that at the start of the month Iran's Press TV reported that Tehran described the Iranian nuclear programme as the priority task of Israeli agents monitoring Iran and Syria from a secret base in Turkey (the station employs Israeli personnel). Therefore, the issue of Israeli-Azerbaijani negotiations, the level of which can be seen by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's planned meeting with the Israeli foreign minister, will be the focus of attention of the superpowers. Both countries may, therefore, demonstrate political flexibility. We should not forget that Azerbaijan is a member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which speaks for itself.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az