Mon 08 February 2010 | 06:58 GMT Text size:

Dennis Sammut

News.Az interviews Dennis Sammut, executive director of the British NGO LINKS.

Russia is currently very active in the process to resolve the Karabakh conflict. What is likely to be the result of this activity?

Russia is one of the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk process and has played an active role in that framework. However, since 2008 Russia has also been concerned to avoid further instability in the Caucasus region and this explains the meeting held in Moscow in November 2008 and the Russian efforts to get the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a common declaration on the way forward to resolving the conflict. President Medvedev subsequently organized several meetings with the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in an effort to get a breakthrough. These efforts have so far failed.

Some see all this activity as a sign that Russia wants to play the leading role in this process and in doing so to marginalize the other two co-chairs, the US and France. I think the Russian approach is more subtle. Russia does not want to be left alone in the process because, in the event of failure, it will have nobody else to share the responsibility with and, in the event of success, it alone will not be able to guarantee and underpin an agreement. So whilst Russia wants to be seen taking a leading role in the negotiations, it will seek to keep the rest of the international community fully on board.

However, there is an emerging view that the Minsk process now needs to deliver, and if not, it needs to be rethought. I think the next few weeks will be very important.

How do you assess the role of Turkey in the South Caucasus at the moment? What is the likelihood of the protocols signed by Turkey and Armenia last year being implemented and what would be the impact of this on the Karabakh issue?
 
Turkey, like Russia, wants the situation in the Caucasus to be stabilized, but like Russia is limited in what it can do on its own. It is also aware that its disputes with Armenia hinder its ability to engage properly with the region. The protocols that were signed between the two countries last year have the potential to change things in the region for the better. The issue has unfortunately now been caught up in the domestic politics of the two countries. The two governments have a responsibility to finish what they started and the international community is united in supporting this.

We hear a lot about an increased role for the European Union in the South Caucasus. Can the EU help the settlement of conflicts in the South Caucasus and how do you see its role in the region in the future?

The South Caucasus is now a priority region for the European Union and there is no going back from this. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are members of the Eastern Partnership and both within that framework and bilaterally relations are set to develop. The EU wants this, and the three countries want this too.

The EU is set to become much more active in the process of settling the conflicts in the region. In Georgia it is now, together with the OSCE and the UN, steering the Geneva process, and it alone has a monitoring mission on the ground now – the EUMM. Despite the limitations imposed on the EUMM, especially with regard to its deployment in the conflict zones, its existence is a very clear indication of the commitment of the EU to the region. With regard to Karabakh, discussions have been ongoing for some time about increasing the EU engagement with the conflict resolution process. One idea currently being discussed is the possibility that the French co-chair of the Minsk Group will in the future have a shared French/EU mandate. This idea was mentioned in a LINKS report on the Karabakh conflict published last year and also features in the recommendations made by the Kirilov Report currently in front of the European Parliament. It will all depend on how the negotiations develop in the course of the coming months, but I am fairly confident that we are going to see much more direct EU involvement in support of the the settlement of the Karabakh conflict by the end of the year.

The strength of the EU is in its “soft power”, and this is what is going to be required for a solution to the Karabakh conflict. Europe can underpin the future of the region through economic activity that brings prosperity to the region and its people. Europe also has a vibrant civil society, and this civil society also has a role to play. In fact a number of European NGOs, including LINKS, recently established a new “European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh”. The partnership will launch its programme of work in the region soon, hopefully by next month. Our work will compliment that of the EU in the political, economic, social and cultural spheres.

However the biggest long term contribution the EU can make towards peace in the South Caucasus is by embracing the three countries within its community of shared values. This will take time but the process has started.

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az