Sat 06 February 2010 | 08:22 GMT Text size:

Dr Robert Leonardi

News.Az interviews Dr Robert Leonardi, an expert on the EU at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

There is a great deal of talk about problems in the EU with new member states. What are the main problems with EU enlargement?

What are the problems with the new member states? During the last accession round between 2004 and 2007, 12 new member states came into the EU. Most of these were from central and eastern Europe and aside from the two small island countries — Cyprus and Malta — they all qualified for the Convergence objective.  During the economic crisis of 2008-2009 all of the less developed member states have had problems with the stability of their currencies and national accounts. Given the current discussion on bailing out weaker countries in the EU and Euro zone — Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland — this does not bode well for the entry of more economically weaker countries. The priority now for further accession is the incorporation of the Western Balkans. Slovenia came in with the other Central and East Europeans in 2004. Croatia is negotiating accession. The proposed candidacy of Macedonia has allowed it to begin negotiations. Serbia, Albania and Montenegro are on the verge of applying. Finally, Bosnia and Kosovo are still in the throes of “state building”.
 
Do you think further EU enlargement is realistic in the near future?

In my opinion the process of accession has to be brought to an end in the Balkans before consideration is given to other potential candidate countries. There is the case of Turkey which is quite interesting, but which will take a long period of time to resolve positively.
 
Do you see former republics of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan in particular, in the EU in the future?

In relation to the ex-Soviet republics the situation is more difficult given their lack of physical proximity and the initial stages of interaction. The  European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) provides an important instrument in beginning to create these links. If I were a policy maker in the South Caucasus I would give serious consideration to these opportunities for productive interaction with the EU. Here there is the opportunity to move forward to negotiate a DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area) with the EU while placing emphasis on implementing Azerbaijan’s Action Plan.
 
What is Azerbaijan for the EU? Is it just an energy supplier or something more?

I would argue that the country is more than an energy supplier to the EU, but it needs to place its relations with the EU on the basis of a political as well as economic agreement. Azerbaijan’s role is to a great extent compromised by the problems with Georgia and the two secessionist regions which have a tendency to characterize the whole of the South Caucasus.

Do you share the opinion that ethnic conflicts in Europe, in particular in the South Caucasus, are threats to Europe? What kind of role can the EU play to support stability and peace in the South Caucasus? And is the EU ready to compete with Russia for influence in the post-Soviet area, in the South Caucasus in particular? 

The role of the EU, I think, should be that of an honest broker in the conflict. I do not think that Russia can play this role. The EU interprets its role in the South Caucasus as a promoter of economic integration with the EU, if not across the region.

Dr Robert Leonardi is director of the Economic and Social Cohesion Laboratory at the London School of Economics and Political Science's European Institute.

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az