Fri 05 February 2010 | 08:32 GMT Text size:

Uwe Halbach

News.Az interviews Dr. Uwe Halbach, researcher of German Institute for International Affairs and Security in Berlin.

President of Azerbaijan is in Germany now. How do you estimate the relations between the two countries?

Within the last five years relations between Azerbaijan and EU as well as the bilateral relations with Germany have become more intensive as before – due to Azerbaijan’s rapid economic growth and an increased European and German interest in the diversification of energy supply and attention for a Southern Transport Corridor with the South Caucasus as its key region. Though Germany is not the main investor in Azerbaijan, some 45 German enterprises are active in Baku. There are special historical relations between both countries going back to the beginning of 19th century with German settlers in Azerbaijan. This history which was known only to a small community of experts in Germany is now becoming more prominent in the German public. In 2008 the cultural, political and economic bilateral relations were presented in a “year of Azerbaijan” in Germany. Thus, knowledge about Azerbaijan, until recently a rather unknown partner for Germany, is growing. 
 
President Aliyev during his visit going to participate in the Munich conference on security issues.  What kind of role can play Germany and EU in stabilization situation in the Sought Caucasus?

Stabilization of the South Caucasus has mainly to do with working on unresolved conflicts from Abkhazia to Nagorno-Karabakh. On this field of action Germany is more part of the EU as an actor on its own. Until recently EU’s role in conflict managing in the South Caucasus was limited. It was more a “working around conflict” with some rehabilitation projects in conflict damaged regions like South Ossetia than a “working on conflict” by active mediation or peacekeeping. EU’s main argument for this reserved position was that other international actors like OSCE and UN were engaged in conflict mediation in this region since many years. The “August war” in Georgia 2008 was a certain turning point in this regard. EU became the main mediator of the ceasefire agreements between Russia and Georgia and sent a monitoring mission to Georgia (EUMM). Thus, EU become more engaged in “working on conflict” as before.        
 
Why the EU is so passive in the settlement of Karabagh conflict, despite of huge economic interests of Europe in Azerbaijan?

Among all unresolved conflicts in its Eastern Neighborhood EU is, indeed, least engaged in the conflict on Nagorno-Karabakh though this conflict is perceived as the historical key conflict in the South Caucasus and its unresolved status is a hard burden for intraregional relations. Again Brussels main argument was that other international actors are engaged in conflict resolution, in this case the co-chairs of the Minsk OSCE-group United States, Russia and France. Especially Russia has become very active in “peace diplomacy” in this conflict after the August war 2008.  
 
Do you think that efforts of Russia and Turkey to stabilize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be successful?

I think that Russia is seriously interested in a stabilization of the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as it is looking for increased economic and political relations with both sides. With regard to Turkey’s role in the region I see that at first the unresolved Karabakh-conflict is blocking the Turkish-Armenian rapproachement process and the ratification of the Zurich protocols. It makes out of the bilateral diplomatic process between Ankara and Yerevan a tricky trilateral relationship with Azerbaijan being strongly against the opening of Turkey’s border with Armenia without a preceeding withdrawal of Armenian troops from its own territory.
 
Is there a threat of new war for Karabakh and what it will be for Europe ant its interests in the region?

A new war on Karabakh would be against the interests of all sides. If all sides are acting rationally the threat of a new war should be minimal. For Azerbaijan the military variant of conflict resolution, as mentioned by President Aliyev before the meeting in Munich in November 2009, would be the end of its “energy honeymoon” and its prosperous development of international relations. For Europe it would be a lasting and heavy interruption of its Southern Transport Corridor, which is just in the making,  for Russia it would be a challenge of its security relationship with Armenia.     

Dr. Uwe Halbach, is researcher for the Russian Federation/CIS department of the German Institute for International Affairs and Security in Berlin.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az