News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Agayev.
The USA's director of national intelligence, Dennis Blair, told an annual Senate committee hearing on Tuesday that there is a possibility of resumption of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. What can you say about this?
This high-profile statement from the director of US National Intelligence can be seen as a message to Armenia and Azerbaijan over the unsettled Karabakh conflict that has resulted in the occupation of one-fifth of our lands by Armenians. The message is definitely prompted by the impatience of the United States at the lack of progress in resolution of this conflict. Now we should ask ourselves to whom they are addressing this message.
I think the message is mostly addressed to Armenia. Probably, the United States has realized that the scope for compromise on a peaceful Karabakh settlement has been exhausted in Azerbaijan. At the same time, Armenia occupies the land of their neighbouring state, whose territorial integrity is recognized by the whole world, and starts to annoy the United States with its non-constructive position because it will not comply with US plans for consolidation in the South Caucasus region. In addition, the first anniversary of Barack Obama’s inauguration as president has passed, but none of his election promises has been met. This also affects the nature of statements from different US officials that send different messages to the countries of geopolitical interest to Washington.
The date 24 April when Armenians worldwide hope that Barack Obama will describe the 1915 killings of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey as “genocide” is nearing. Do you think Obama will do this?
It is quite obvious that Barack Obama will not recognize the events in Ottoman Turkey as “genocide”, like the previous US president. Turkey has long been used to living under the threat of recognition of the mythical “Armenian genocide” by the US president. This time Turkey will also bring all its mechanisms into play to lobby in the United States prior to 24 April, which will produce the necessary effect.
What conclusions should Armenia draw if Barack Obama again does not pronounce the word “genocide”?
Armenia will have to correct its position both on resolution of the Karabakh conflict and on further steps to normalize Turkish-Armenian relations. They have no other way, while the economic situation in the country is poor.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az