Dennis C. Blair
“The unresolved conflicts of the Caucasus provide the most likely flashpoints in the Eurasia region,” the USA's director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, told the hearing.
"Moscow’s expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgia’s separatist regions of South Ossetia and sporadic low-level violence increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed fighting," Blair said.
"Although there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh."
Blair said in his Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community that America’s relations with Russia could suffer as the United States seeks closer ties with Georgia and other former Soviet states.
He said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev viewed Moscow’s former Soviet neighbours as a "zone of privileged interests", which could undermine relations with Washington.
"The role Moscow plays regarding issues of interest to the United States is likely to turn on many factors, including developments on Russia’s periphery and the degree to which Russia perceives US policies as threatening to what its leadership sees as vital Russian interests," Blair said.
"There have been encouraging signs in the past year that Russia is prepared to be more cooperative with the United States, as illustrated by President Medvedev’s agreement last summer to support air transit through Russia of lethal military cargo in support of coalition operations in Afghanistan and Moscow’s willingness to engage with the United States on constructive ways to reduce the nuclear threat from Iran. I remain concerned, however, that Russia looks at relations with its neighbours in the former Soviet space — an area characterized by President Medvedev as Russia’s 'zone of privileged interests' — largely in zero-sum terms, vis-a-vis the United States, potentially undermining the US-Russian bilateral relationship. Moscow, moreover, has made it clear it expects to be consulted closely on missile defence plans and other European security issues."
Blair also dwelt on the security problems posed by the North Caucasus.
"On the domestic front, Moscow faces tough policy choices in the face of an uptick in violence in the past year in the chronically volatile North Caucasus, which is fueled in part by a continuing insurgency, corruption, organized crime, clan competition, endemic poverty, radical Islamist penetration, and a lagging economy that is just beginning to recover from the global economic crisis. Some of the violence elsewhere in Russia, such as a deadly train bombing in late November 2009, may be related to instability in the North Caucasus.
"In addressing nationwide problems, Medvedev talks about Russia’s need to modernize the economy, fight corruption, and move toward a more rule-of-law-based and pluralistic political system, but he faces formidable opposition within the entrenched elite who benefit from the status quo. Turbulence in global energy markets was a painful reminder to Moscow of the Russian economy’s overdependence on energy, dramatizing the need for constructive steps toward economic modernization and diversification. However, moving forward on issues such as reforming Russia’s state corporations or creating conditions more conducive to foreign investors could produce a backlash by those forces who might lose from competition."
Dennis Blair began his report on a cautious note.
“We see some improvements, but also several entrenched problems and slow progress in some areas for the foreseeable future. Several large-scale threats to fundamental US interests will require increased attention, and it is on one of these threats that I will focus our initial discussion."
Blair chose the cyber threat as the first area of concern in his report. He went on to look at the situation worldwide with special mention of the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and North Korea. He also looked at the threats posed by global economic problems and climate change.
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