News.Az interviews Cory Welt, associate director of the Elliott School of International Affairs’ Institute, George Washington University.
Moscow is quite active in attempts to solve the Karabakh problem. May these efforts bring peace to the region?
While Moscow has been more active in its efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict, it is not clear that more activity equals a greater commitment to making progress. Specifically, Moscow has been unusually quiet regarding its views on whether Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and the conflict resolution process in Karabakh should be linked. If Moscow really sought progress, it would articulate its views on this and other matters, including what it views would be reasonable for Armenia to expect in return for withdrawing from occupied Azerbaijani territories outside Nagorno-Karabakh, if normalization with Turkey is insufficient.
What are the prospects for a Karabakh settlement or at least progress in 2010?
The Karabakh conflict resolution process has been overshadowed by the attention paid to the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation process. These two processes have now come together again, as they should have all along, but unfortunately in a way that does not bode well for short-term progress on Karabakh. The most immediate challenge is to get the Turkish-Armenian process back on track. The two countries have now exchanged “preconditions” for ratification of the protocols – from Turkey’s side, progress in the Karabakh resolution process and, from Armenia’s side, continued pursuit of genocide recognition. As the “shock” of these preconditions fades away, it will be time for both sides to accept the reality of positions that are entirely unsurprising and get accustomed to the fact that normalization is going to be an extended process – that inevitably moves alongside the Karabakh resolution process and Armenian efforts to gain international recognition of genocide.
Cory Welt is associate director of the Elliott School of International Affairs’ Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University.
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az