News.Az interviews Vitaliy Bala, director of the Ukrainian Agency of Modeling Situations.
What do you think of the presidential elections held in Ukraine yesterday?
The specific feature of these elections was that there were opportunities for falsifications, including voting at home without presenting a medical reference and registering those willing to vote at the constituencies.
Have there been any violations during the elections, in your opinion?
Falsifications were observed in several regions of Ukraine, in particular, regarding the attendance of voters and voting for a candidate. For example, our agency held a sociological study in Lugan in early December and an exit-poll on the voting day. By our information, about 60% voters support Yanukovich, while the Ukrainian Central Election Commission says this indicator made 70%. Yanukovich’s staff set the idea to raise the gap to over 10% in the first round and, unfortunately, this work was set this way everywhere in Ukraine.
What can you say about the results of the elections?
The results allow being optimistic: the future president will be widely represented throughout Ukraine as compared to the president that was elected in 2004. This will allow us starting work over country’s unification.
Some circles call the results of elections in Ukraine as the failure of the “orange movement”. What do you think about it?
I would not state this categorically. This is a rhetoric of Viktor Yanukovich’s representatives. Today no past split of the country is observed. It is declining and there is no clear division into “orange” and “blue”, which is positive for the Ukraine people.
Which changes do you expect in the internal and external policy of Ukraine in case Viktor Yanukovich or Yulia Timoshenko come to power?
If Yanukovich wins, there is a possibility for a new phase of a political “war” and confrontation. Yanukovich and his team have already declared plans to dismiss the parliament which will force the deputies seek an alliance with Timoshenko, while under the working Constitution the president has a restricted opportunity to maneuver for adoption and execution of decision. Everything will just start, especially, considering the aforementioned factor that the legitimacy of the elected president will be questioned. If Timoshenko wins, the possibility of a political “war” will reduce significantly. Anyway, there is a need to find a possibility for coexistence and cooperation between the candidates that have reached the second round for effective decisions and actions.
Ukraine is one of the driving forces of GUAM. What do you think will be the future of this organization in case Yanukovich or Timoshenko is elected a president?
Everything depends on the team that will be dealing with the foreign policy issues, but it would be better for Ukraine to conduct a foreign policy far from the possible conflicts of interests that is this policy should be pro-Ukrainian.
Are any corrections expected in the relations between Ukraine and Azerbaijan in case Yanukovich becomes president?
I find it difficult to answer because I am not familiar with Yanukovich’s position on this issue. Meanwhile, the overall foreign policy component is quite vague and only general phrases are voiced.
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