Joseph Shagal

How serious is the latest diplomatic scandal between Israel and Turkey?

If you are referring to the misunderstanding that occurred at the meeting with the Turkish ambassador in the Israeli Foreign Ministry, after the official apologies by Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, and their acceptance by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, the incident can be considered over. For anyone who doubts this, let me quote the letter sent by the Israeli Foreign Ministry to Turkey via diplomatic channels: “All conflicts between the countries should be settled by way of mutual respect.”

Naturally, the incident would hardly raise the level of Israeli-Turkish relations but it has not worsened them for the simple reason that they are already strained.

Is it possible to say that the Israeli leadership is reviewing relations and is toughening its approach to the Muslim countries, even to those who have until now been considered its strategic partners?

On the contrary, I see the unhidden intention of Israel to build close, mutually profitable and long-term relations with the larger Muslim world. It is clear that this implies only those states which voice the desire or at least the intention of becoming friends with Israel on the basis of equality  and mutual respect.

You probably know that since day one of its existence, Israel has been surrounded by a bellicose and irreconcilable wall of Arab resistance which has led to five major wars and killed many. Though present-day Israel has existed for at least 62 years, the majority of Muslim (mostly Arab) states still do not recognize its right to exist. You would agree that it would be at least illogical to speak of Israel toughening its approach to the Muslim world - it is admissible to offer friendship but inadmissible to impose it.

As for Turkey, with which Israel has maintained decades of reliable, strategic relations and interaction in major spheres, I would not hurry to bury this regional alliance that has been tested by time. Both Turkey and Israel have enough reasonable and pragmatic politicians who understand the real importance of Israeli-Turkish relations in the maintenance of peace and stability in the Middle East. I do hope that this understanding will take our countries back to their traditionally friendly relations.

Meanwhile, the cooling in Israeli-Turkish relations initiated by Ankara a year ago is really damaging. It would be enough to recall that Israeli tourism, which brought over $500m per year to the Turkish treasury, has fallen by 11% and is continuing to fall. However, there are other no less important spheres of bilateral economic and strategic cooperation.

How can this influence the situation in the region?

Turkey is among the key states in the Middle East and Israel cannot stay indifferent when against a background of traditional anti-Israeli steps, Ankara continues active rapprochement with Syria, which has been at war with Israel since 1973, and especially with Iran which is increasing its nuclear potential without hiding its claims to regional hegemony.

To complete the picture, I would like to note that this implies not only a real threat to the security and sovereignty of Israel. The tripartite alliance of Turkey, Syria and Iran (if it acquires military and strategic contours) will pose a mortal danger to the regime of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt who has long been facing opposition from terrorist formations of Islamic fundamentalists actively supported and financed by Iran and Syria. And the last thing: any attempts to weaken Egypt are perceived by the richest country of the region – Saudi Arabia – as contradictory to its interests.

I believe the political rhetoric of the Turkish leadership will remain rhetoric and will not damage the established system of checks and balances that preserves relative stability in the region. Otherwise, there is a threat of military disaster in the Middle East.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is expected to pay a visit to Azerbaijan soon. What do you think may be on the agenda? May the diplomatic scandal with Turkey influence the agenda of the upcoming Azerbaijani-Israeli negotiations in Baku?

The Israeli foreign minister's visit to Azerbaijan, scheduled for 9 February, will be the second in two years for Avigdor Lieberman. He visited Baku as a deputy prime minister of the Israeli government and minister for strategic planning and met Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister Artur Rasizade, Milli Majlis Chairman Oqtay Asadov as well as other ministers of the Azerbaijani government in autumn 2007.

Since a stable and constructive political dialogue has long been observed in relations between Jerusalem and Baku, and was especially promoted during the recent visit of Israeli President Shimon Peres to Azerbaijan, it is likely to continue during the first visit of the Israeli foreign minister to Azerbaijan. The negotiations are likely to cover the further strengthening of strategic ties and economic cooperation.

The negotiations may also touch upon the creation and functioning of a bilateral Azerbaijani-Israeli intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation, perpetuating the memory of the first president of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, in Israel, ensuring pensions for Israeli citizens who come from Azerbaijan and the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Israel.

As for the second part of your question, I do not think that the complex nuances of Israeli-Turkish relations will have any influence on the level and content of Azerbaijani-Israeli dialogue. I would like to recall that Israeli President Shimon Peres had a meeting with President Ilham Aliyev in Baku in autumn last year at the peak of the anti-Israeli escapades of Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. These escapades did not have any influence on either the cordiality of the reception afforded to the Israeli leader or the content of negotiations between the two leaders.

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az