Ariel Cohen

We have recently witnessed intensification of meetings to settle the Karabakh conflict. Can we expect progress in the settlement, in this regard?

I hope both parties realize the need to find a mutually profitable solution, a decision that would meet the interests of both sides and also comply with bases of international law. Such a decision would prove that the changes in existing state borders that emerge after the collapse of a past state by administrative borders of this state, can take place only on agreement of both sides. Therefore, Karabakh should stay under Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction. As far as I understand, Azerbaijan is ready to make far-reaching concessions. And if both sides come to such an agreement, the benefits of both sides are obvious in the sense of developing ties, transport arteries and improving investment climate.

Can the developing Russian-Turkish interaction promote the conflict settlement?

This is another important moment. Today Turkey and Russia are creating the so-called “condominium” in the South Caucasus. This joint activity is likely to reduce sovereignty of all three South Caucasus states, including Armenia.

The interference of the regional superpowers in the region will reduce freedom of maneuvering for  Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. And the process of pressure and separation that is going on between Russia and Georgia and that really narrows the Georgian territory and reduces Georgian sovereignty is just the first sign of what may happen in the South Caucasus if the states do not search ways to cooperate and overcome the historical hindrances accumulated since 1988.

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev recently speaking before a group of IDPs said in case the conflict is further protracted Baku may consider possible return of occupied lands and is, therefore, raising its military potential. Is the possibility of a new war for Nagorno Karabakh high?

I do not consider the military actions today as a desirable development. But in this situation it depends on who initiates hostilities. I do not think Azerbaijan will initiate war though the return of lands may be one of the recognized causes of that. There is a difference between reconciliation and peace in international law. There is no peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia but I do not think someone in Azerbaijan wants war. The intentions of Armenians now depend on their leadership and their elite and their ability to overcome the desire to hold Karabakh further instead of finding a mutually profitable solution.

Also much will depend on whether Turkey fulfills its role of a fraternal state towards Azerbaijan or it will forget its fraternal duty and settle its own issues ignoring the principles of Turkic solidarity and fraternal relations with Azerbaijan.
 
How would you comment on the recent events connected with the signing of the Azerbaijani-Russian agreement on gas supplies to Russia and the recent Azerbaijani-Turkish differences about the price of Azerbaijani gas exported via Turkey? Won’t they reduce possibility of implementing Nabucco gas project?

It depends on which strategic pipeline will be constructed. Russia and its partners have serious achievements in building geopolitical foundations for the South Stream. In fact, there is an agreement on the whole line. I think Turkey is not ready to support only Nabucco. The relations between Erdogan and Putin are improving which means improvement of relations between Turkey and Russia.

Meanwhile, the West has a chance, if now the European Union and the United States try pushing Nabucco. Yet the time is limited. This will be either a pipeline based on Azerbaijani and perhaps Turkmen gas or we will have problems because Turkey will also try to promote Iranian gas which is undesirable at the current stage and in this conjuncture.

If Turkey allows Russia to lay the pipeline via its territorial water, it will thus play into Russia’s hands… Perhaps, it has some interests. Perhaps, some of its politicians have personal ambitions.

Anyway, it would be good for the United States, Europe and Turkey to join efforts to establish Nabucco.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az