Tue 01 December 2009 | 05:18 GMT Text size:

Vladimir Kazimirov

Retired ambassador Vladimir Kazimirov, one of Russia's former mediators on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, has said that Azerbaijan and Armenia are a long way from reaching a settlement.

In an article published on Monday, the former co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group mediators on the conflict, said: "The positions of the sides on the main disputed issue - the status of Nagorno-Karabakh - are polarized. In each of the three sides to the conflict society is not ready for mutual concessions and no breakthrough is possible at the moment on the basic principles of an agreement and especially not on getting such an agreement signed. Baku is hampered by a complex of failure in the 1991-1994 war, Yerevan is hampered by domestic political difficulties and the normalization of relations with Turkey and Stepanakert is hampered by exclusion from the negotiations."

Since a settlement is still a long-way off, the use of force has to be ruled out, Kazimirov said.

"The states mediating Karabakh affairs, the OSCE and international community, should have their own priority, even an imperative, to rule out the resumption of war," Kazimirov wrote. He said this is not naive pacifism, but a logical necessity bearing in mind the history and geography of the region.

"It should not be forgotten that the war in Karabakh lasted two and a half years, claimed almost 30,000 lives, and turned a million Azerbaijanis and Armenians into refugees and displaced persons. War with the use of modern weaponry, major attacks and raids would be especially harsh."

"The approximate parity of forces rules out a quick war," Kazimirov wrote. "Even if one of the sides does have the advantage, it can only move the front line and will not achieve a final resolution of the conflict."

"A resumption of war would be "a moral failure for the OSCE, as the latter has been the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict mediator since 1992”, Kazimirov wrote.

He concluded that the conflict must be solved peacefully, through persistent diplomacy. 

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