Tue 24 November 2009 | 13:40 GMT Text size:

Fikret Sadikhov

News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist Fikret Sadikhov.

The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia have abstained from commenting on the their recent meeting in Germany and the mediators say only that the negotiations on Karabakh will continue. What do you think about the prospects of a settlement, bearing in mind Aliyev’s statement before the talks that the meeting in Munich will be decisive?

First of all, I would like to say that the meeting in Munich was the first meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders since the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in Zurich. After the protocols were signed, the geopolitical situation and relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan became rather strained. Our harsh reaction to Turkey’s move attracted attention not only from the Turks but also from the leading Western countries. Therefore, considering the background to the presidents' Munich talks, I think we can expect some invigoration and dynamism from this meeting.

In other words you think that the thaw in Turkish-Armenian relations may have a positive influence on negotiations over Karabakh?

The very fact of the signing of the Zurich protocols damages Azerbaijan’s interests. But the situation that followed the signing and our harsh reaction to the signing of the document without Azerbaijan’s interests being taken into account, the further position of Turkey and the role of the superpowers that were behind the signatories in Zurich prove that the situation differs from before. The West has felt Azerbaijan's harsh reaction. Moreover, the Azerbaijani president spoke bluntly before the refugees. For the first time, he said if the meeting in Munich is ineffective we will think about stopping the negotiations and taking other actions against the aggressor.

Do you think he meant that war is possible?

I don't want to make such emphatic statements. But there is a certain logic, the political logic of relations between the conflict parties. If a party that occupied part of the land of another country has been holding negotiations for about two decades, logic says if the occupying country is unable and unwilling to make concessions, this forces the occupied country to liberate its lands. It is not war. It is Azerbaijan’s legal right to liberate its lands. We are not laying claims on others’ lands, we are speaking of the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani land. And I do not rule out military action if the negotiations are fruitless.

Is it possible to expect the Armenians to make concessions after president Aliyev's remarks about the possible resumption of war if the negotiations in Munich fail?

I would like to say that even before and after the remarks I do not trust the Armenian side as we understand that Armenia is unable to take action independently. Much depends on the leading states, the superpowers and, first of all, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. It is clear that achievements will depend on their pressure, their intention to influence Armenia. Let’s recall the recent past. I do not remember the Azerbaijani president making such emphatic statements about the liberation of Azerbaijani lands. This is a limit. This is a boundary that Azerbaijan is unlikely to cross. Therefore, I want to hope and I think Azerbaijan will be heard and understood. And the countries backing Armenia should understand that Azerbaijan is quite determined and it has all grounds for this determination both in terms of politics and international law.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az