Fikret Sadikhov

- The Iranian Cabinet decided to abolish visa system with Azerbaijan unilaterally. What is the underlying reason for such a decision?

 Certainly, it would be profitable for Iran with a population of 80 mln people to have a visa-free regime with Azerbaijan whose population is 9 mln people. Certainly, this is an unequivalent  idea and an unequivalent proposal. It could be called a goodwill gesture in diplomacy. It is good, it is very good that a neighbor, friendly state, Iran, decides to abolish the visa regime unilaterally. It can be perceived as a goodwill gesture. But… I do not think we should be happy about it in terms of geopolitics. First of all because we have no visa-free regime even with our close ally and partner Turkey that also proposed such a visa-free regime to us, but we did not accept the proposal. We have not set a mutual visa free regime with Turkey. Meanwhile, Iran, despite it is a neighbor and friendly state for Azerbaijan where millions of Azerbaijanis live, has some moments in its policy that cause resentment of the Azerbaijani public and the overall Azerbaijan.

 This implies not only good relations with Armenia that includes numerous agreements in political and even military spheres. They have signed tens of agreements. Tehran and Yerevan conduct lively trade, develop trade and economic ties, political contacts and cultural relations. If Iran is a Muslim state that should demonstrate Muslim solidarity with the country that was subjected to aggression, it means it should oppose these aggressive actions of an aggressor country and not encourage it or creation conditions for further escalation of its aggressive policy against Azerbaijan. Therefore, even though it may look like a goodwill gesture, I do not think we should take hasty decisions at the current stage. We should certainly be cautious when taking these decisions.

 I could accept, for example, a visa-free regime for a certain category of professions in terms of bilateral relations. For example EU applies this for Russia and some other countries regarding journalists, some categories of politicians, deputies, sociopolitical figures, perhaps, even a part of students at a definite period of the year. But I think it is too early to introduce the general system of visa-free regime on the bilateral basis.

Moreover, there is another factor and this is also a reality: Iran has worsened its ties with the West. Well, of course, it is Iran’s right to develop its nuclear industry and its nuclear program. But due to such a unilateral approach to this problem, by ignoring the interests of some western countries Tehran has worsened relations with most Western European states and the United States, in particular. As it is known today, the six states that are negotiating with Iran about its nuclear program, set conditions and terms before Tehran during which Iranian authorities should respond. Otherwise, Americans even threaten to impose definite sanctions and embargoes against Tehran. Thus, Iran may be in an isolated state. And I admit that today Tehran needs wider and multilateral relations with most countries, including Azerbaijan, on visa-free basis that Iran proposes today.

- Could the Iranian Cabinet have taken this decision as it was scared with the recent events connected with the signing of protocols between Ankara and Yerevan? Is it possible that the US’s active participation in this process causes concerns in Iran and Washington may block possibilities of the Iranian-Armenian cooperation by granting serious bonuses to Armenia to overcome the hard economic situations it has driven itself in by its own policy of aggression?

-          You know, Iranian diplomacy is quite professional and it has a great experience. I accept the possibility of this factor. Certainly, the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement, normalization of ties between these countries, establishment of diplomatic ties between Yerevan and Ankara may have a negative influence on the situation in Iran and Tehran’s role in the region. Because as today we see leading superpowers, including international organizations and EU, demonstrating their interest in normalizing Turkish-Armenian ties and opening of borders (we have witnessed the events in Zurich), the United States may possible attempt to seize control over Armenia. If they drag Armenia out of Russia’s control, this will have a negative influence not only on the Armenian-Russian relations but also on the relations between Iran and Armenia that currently see quite wide cooperation in most spheres.

- The conflicts in the South Caucasus helped Russia and the United States raise their influence in the region as active players. Turkey has also intensified in this respect after the August events of the last year connected with the open armed confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi. Can we say that Iran’s previous attempts to turn into an active player in the region have failed therefore Tehran is now taking steps to eliminate visa-free regime with Azerbaijan with a purpose to attacking from a different flank? What can be Russia’s role in this, considering its strategic partner relations with Iran? Can we say that Moscow tends to strengthen its position in the region by turning Iran in this direction?

 - I do not see any special role of Russia in Tehran’s proposal to set visa-free regime with Azerbaijan. On the other hand, a new geopolitical situation has established in the region due to normalization of the relations between Turkey and Armenia. It means that the interests of most superpowers and countries including Russia have coincided here. The United States are interested in the security in the region. Turkey is striving to join EU and normalize relations for this purpose. Russia tends to strengthen its positions in this region, as Moscow has recently been especially interested in Azerbaijan.

 Azerbaijan is turning into  quite an important player in the region for its economic potential and for implementation of most regional oil and gas projects and Moscow is interested in it. Perhaps, Russia is tired of supporting impoverished Armenia. It has supported Yerevan until a definite moment and Armenia is still its ally. Earlier Russia supported Armenia in its confrontation to Turkey. But today Ankara’s role is radically changing. Turkey tends to expand its relations not only with the West but also with Russia and the Kremlin is somehow interested in the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement in order to try to weaken the growing influence of the West, especially the United States, in the region by the help of Turkey with whom Russia has recently established quite close ties.
 
 But the fact is that the interests of most countries coincide here which shows that Iran might be in a complex geopolitical state. In a state of isolation… Its relations with the western world with respect to the unsettled nuclear program create significant complexities for it. Moreover, Russia has already announced in a softer form that Tehran should develop its nuclear program under international control. Moreover, it even proposed to export and enrich uranium in Russia. Then there came a proposal to export and enrich it in Turkey. But Tehran declined both proposals. Thus, the relations between Iran and Russia are not that simple in this issue.

Lala B.
News.Az