News.Az interviews Rasim Musabeyov, Azerbaijani political scientist.
What do you think about the official visit of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev to Baku?
With regard to the bilateral relations, I think there is a progress here fixed in the signed documents. There is a dynamics in economic and cultural relations. There are no problems there. But I think from the viewpoint of regional geopolitics, each of the parties has preserved its interest. I do not think that Medvedev has managed to persuade the Azerbaijani leadership to pass to Russia’s political orbit, join her intentions and actions to isolate Saakashvili in Georgia. Meanwhile, I do not think that Azerbaijan is satisfied with Moscow’s explanations about its role in the Karabakh settlement. So each of the sides remains at its own interest.
Do you agree with assistant Russian president Prikhodko who said competent people in Baku are not concerned with the recently signed agreement on the Russian military base in Gryumri, Armenia?
I do not think that there are concerns about Gryumri. We don’t have to faint at the extension of the term of the Russian base in Armenia for even a hundred years! In fact this paper has not changed anything in the regional balance of powers. But it is real that Russia is not going to urge Sargsyan’s regime to be vice and that Russia that assists this regime, in fact provides indirect support to Armenians’ stubbornness and unwillingness to withdraw from the Azerbaijani lands. This is the point.
But the main point in the agreement is the decision to extend the powers of the base, that is to draw Russian servicemen into the provision of Armenia’s security rather than the prolongation of the document.
What can they extend there?... The number of people there is 5,000 and it remains changeless. Let them try to supply at least one tank. Some people here are speaking of the possible supplies of S-300, S-400 to Armenia… I would want to see how they are going to supply them. It is impossible. The main thing is that neither Georgia nor Azerbaijan and Turkey do not allow any supplies except for civil air flights.
The Azerbaijani present has said that the indicator of the efforts taken by the Russian president is six meetings he held with Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan. Meanwhile, what could Medvedev offer at the last trilateral meeting of the presidents in Saint-Petersburg (which is seemingly not compliant with Baku’s interests) that could be accepted by Armenians considering these proposals to be the new starting point in negotiations?
Russia can make any offers. There are definite Madrid principles developed and introduced at the OSCE summit in Athens. The Russian proposal has in fact implied the proposal to reject the uncoordinated issues and sign an interim agreement. But the essence of this agreement is that the parties undertake to preserve existing status quo which is absolutely inadmissible for Azerbaijan. This may in fact lead to conservation of the situation. We are interested in the liberation of the occupied lands rather than provision of peace in conditions of this occupation.
Does it mean that the current situation in conditions of the domination of Russia’s mediation and passiveness of the United States and France does not promise anything good to us?
Well, first we cannot say that the United States is passive. Washington has just enabled Russia to show what it can do in the conflict settlement. I think when they see that Russia is not willing to ensure any real progress and that it merely wants to use the situation for strengthening its geopolitical positions in the region, the US administration will take steps.
There are also changes in EU’s position, at least because EU is not willing to exchange Madrid principles for some Saint Petersburg proposals. I think we will feel it greatly during voting on the Karabakh resolution at the UN assembly.
Can the interference of US, which is not so positive to Baku judging by the recent demarches (delays in appointing the ambassador in Baku, financial support of Karabakh separatists) be useful to us?
All factors you have mentioned are connected with the position of the Congress in which the Armenian lobby presence is quite strong. The Congress is sabotaging Matthew Bryza’s appointment, it extends aid though not too big to Karabakh Armenians, while the State Department does not spend even 25% of this means. This is the attitude of the US administration which is obliged to take the account of Azerbaijan’s position. But certainly, they will not engage fully in the Karabakh conflict seeing Russia’s activeness. This means that the tough situation will be preserved but I merely do not see any perspective for Armenians. Azerbaijan will develop by all means. Even if the necessary attitude of Russia is not gained, the volume of relations of Azerbaijan with Russia, its size and importance will oblige Moscow not to support Armenia so unambiguously.
Anyway, the road to Armenia is closed and it will not open. The projects implemented in the region together with Georgia and Turkey continue developing. Azerbaijan will continue strengthening. And I want to see the situation in the region in a year. It will be no better either for Armenia or for Russia. It is not at random that the word Gabala was not heard at the recent talks in Baku. Next year it is necessary to take a decision either about evacuation of the Russian personnel from the radar station in this city or about extension. I wonder which basis Russia will rely on in insisting to prolong the existence of this base.
Lala B.
News.Az