Ingmar Oldberg

How would you assess the statement of Russian President Medvedev that in case of a new war for Karabakh Russia will completely observe its commitments with Armenia on mutual assistance? Doesn’t it contradict to the mission of an unbiased mediator assumed by Russia?

Yes, Russia plays a very ambivalent game, both supporting Armenia in security issues through the CSTO and trying to be a neutral mediator concerning NK. In my view, Russia profits from the fact that the NK issue is unsolved. It wants to keep its military bases in both states.

Can Azerbaijan secure itself from undesirable complications of the greater Armenian-Russian military rapprochement through placement of the Turkish military base in its territory?

Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan would upset Russia, which would try to stop it or support Armenia even more. This is not in the interest of Azerbaijan, which would be better advised to get other forms of support from Turkey. And Turkey would probably not like to upset Russia by sending military personnel to Azerbaijan, since it otherwise has quite good relations with Russia right now, especially in the economic field.

Regular fire exchanges on the contact line of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops often cause death of people, which has again shown by the incident this summer, when the Azerbaijan ensign terminated four Armenian soldiers and wounded the same number before he himself died. Don’t you consider this to be a sign that the military way of the conflict settlement is more probable?

No, I do not think or hope so. What we see is mostly political steps and symbolic gestures. No side sees violence as the only solution.

Today Russia is undoubtedly the main, if not the only mediator in the Karabakh settlement. What should be done to make other mediators be active in the settlement of this problem too?

One of the few issues that have been coordinated between Baku and Yerevan is related to the composition of peacekeepers that will be dislocated in the conflict area after the signing of the peace agreement. They will be represented by servicemen from Scandinavian countries. Do Swedish servicemen have enough experience and are they ready to assist to peace in the South Caucasus?

Yes, Sweden has experience from OSCE and EU observer missions in in Georgia (Abkhazia) since many years and its diplomats have been active in the Minsk mediation process, so I think Sweden would agree to participate together with others, if a UN- sponsored agreement on NK were ever to be reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az