Dennis Sammut

Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev made it clear that Russia would meet its commitments within the Collective Security Treat Organization – the military alliance of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – if Azerbaijan were to threaten Nagorno-Karabakh militarily. Doesn’t that statement contradict Russia’s role as a mediator in the settlement process?

There is a Russian-Armenian alliance, which has military-political, military and technical cooperation components. This is a fact and it is stated in paragraph 9 of the joint statement issued at the end of President Medvedev's visit to Armenia. Also, as you say, both countries are members of the CSTO military alliance. However, there is nothing new in this situation.

This does not mean that Russia cannot be part of the mediation efforts on Nagorno-Karabakh. It does mean, however, that Russia cannot be alone in this process, and cannot be leading the process alone. Similarly other countries, for example Turkey, cannot be excluded from the process simply for having military cooperation with Azerbaijan. But like Russia, Turkey cannot be alone and cannot lead the process alone.

Azerbaijan talks about a possible new war only to liberate its own lands. It is not going to attack the Republic of Armenia or Russian soldiers there. Do you think that Russia would really meddle in a possible war over Karabakh?

War has many consequences, some of which are not always fully predictable. That is why it must be avoided. In the smoke of war things happen that are not always fully visible.

I do not think Russia has any intention to enter into a direct war with Azerbaijan – or vice versa. However, if hostilities were ever to break out over Nagorno-Karabakh the position of Russia would be a very complicated one indeed.

Do you think that Baku may agree to a Turkish military presence in Azerbaijani territory to feel more secure after the Russian-Armenian military agreement?

There has been military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey for a long time. Azerbaijan has a right to pursue military alliances with whomever it wants, in the same way that Armenia has a right to pursue a military alliance with Russia and Georgia has a right to join NATO.

I would prefer the three countries to find security and solidarity by working together first. In the end this will be much more useful for all three.

Do you think that recent developments in the region – the break in the negotiating process, the front-line clash in June, the visits of the Turkish president to Baku and Russian president to Yerevan – mean that a new war is a more realistic scenario for Karabakh than a diplomatic settlement?

The atmosphere around the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is gloomy. I do not exclude the possibility of resumption of hostilities, but I think if that happens the consequences will be tragic.

Russia is again dominating the Karabakh settlement. What should be done to shake up the other mediators – the USA and France – and other sides, such as the EU, to move the settlement process forward in the interests of both sides rather than just one?

Russia should neither dominate the Karabakh peace process, nor should it be excluded from the process. It needs to be part of a wider international effort. However I do not think that now anybody believes that “more of the same” in the peace process is going to get us anywhere. There is a small period of time in which the international community needs to go back to the drawing board and find ways in which the peace process can be reinvigorated. But the responsibility is also on the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides. They need to reassess the situation, fully appreciate the dangers ahead and adopt a more positive approach towards the negotiations.

U.U.
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