Michael Gunter

The second anniversary of war between Georgia and Russia for South Ossetia is marked these days. What do you think are the main lessons in this war?

The main lesson is that Russia’s interests in its near abroad must be respected. Russia is willing to use military force on a limited basis to defend its interest in this area. This does not mean that Russia would do so in other places outside of the near abroad however.

Is it possible to say that Georgia will be able to regain control over the lost lands in the nearest future?

No, Georgia will not regain control in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The situation has become yet another frozen conflict.

And if speaking about the conflict in Azerbaijan, is it possible to draw analogy between the situation in Nagorno Karabakh and the recent events around the developments in Georgia and Kosovo?

There are general similarities between Kosovo and Karabakh, of course, such as both are examples of minority peoples claiming self-determination and breaking away from a larger state. However, the devil is in the details and here the similarities stop because Kosovo is recognized by many different states as an independent state, while Karabakh is not. The specifics usually trump the generalities.

Do you believe that Armenians’ attempts to win international recognition for Nagorno Karabakh will ever be successful?

It is highly unlikely that Karabakh will ever become independent.

Do you rule out possible Georgian script when Russia or, for example, Armenia may recognize Karabakh unilaterally in the case of the start of military campaign on the liberation of its lands by Azerbaijan?

Of course, anybody could theoretically recognize Karabakh’s independence if Azerbaijan opts for military force, but it is highly unlikely that either will occur.

And at last I would like to hear your opinion regarding the current diplomatic activeness of Russia in the Karabakh settlement. Do you believe in its success?

Russia has a serious interest in matters such as the situation existing between Armenia and Azerbaijan as they are in Russia’s legitimate sphere of influence, its so-called near abroad. However, Russia is not particularly interested in using its considerable influence to bring an early solution to this problem. Indeed, in many ways Russia’s influence as the most immediate regional great power is enhanced by the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan continuing on its current level short of actual military conflict.

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az