Map of Azerbaijan

What are the prospects for a Karabakh settlement in the near future?
 
Although there have been indications that the two sides are moving towards a settlement, one cannot be very optimistic for two reasons: first, there has recently been a deterioration in relations between Turkey and Armenia that will affect one way or another the Azeri-Armenian relationship. Second, there is no consensus within both Azerbaijan and Armenia regarding what is 'acceptable' and what crosses the line. Therefore, the Armenian and Azeri governments will have to convince their respective societies about the need for a less than ideal settlement
 
The international community officially recognizes Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. But is there any threat of Karabakh’s independence from Azerbaijan after what happened in Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
 
It is highly unlikely that any country, including Russia, will recognize de jure the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. In particular, Russia won't jeopardize its growing energy trade with Baku over this.
 
How would you estimate the role of Turkey in the settlement? Can it be positive despite the problems between Turkey and Armenia?
 
Without doubt, Turkey has a strong role in Transcaucasia but in recent years its relationship with Russia has reached a high point. Moreover, Ankara is not considered an honest broker by most Armenians. Yet, if Turkish-Armenian relations improve considerably, that will certainly increase dramatically the chances of a settlement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In the Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan triangle, each side has its own interest that must be taken into account by the others.
 
Iran as well expresses willingness to be involved in the settlement. What kind of role can Iran play?
 
At a time of increased tensions between Tehran and the West, it is very difficult for the Iranian leadership either to launch a diplomatic initiative or to get involved in the settlement.

Azeri authorities say there will be a new war for Karabakh if the negotiations with Armenia fail.  How likely is a new war in the region?

Although a new war does not seem probable, no one can exclude the possibility that the Azeri leadership will feel strong pressure at some point from Azeri society to use military force against the Karabakh Armenians.

Emmanuel Karagiannis is Assistant Professor of Russian ans post-Soviet Studies at the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki, Greece..

Aliyah Fridman
News.Az