News.Az interviews Ingmar Oldberg, senior research associate at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs.
May the disagreements between Russia and the USA influence the settlement of conflicts in the post-Soviet area?
There are real conflicts of interests between Russia and the US in the post-Soviet space, more exaggerated fears than misunderstandings. Some states want and need support from the US, but the US cannot do much.
Russia and the USA are the main mediators in settling the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Are they able to help reach a peaceful solution conflict or are they simply fighting over their own interests and influence in the region?
Russia is much more involved than the US, as it is a military ally of Armenia, and an official mediator. The US is mainly involved due to the Armenian lobby in the US.
Moscow says that possible NATO membership of any CIS state is a threat to Russia. Do you agree?
No, but the Russians would see it as a threat.
Might the expansion of NATO to the South Caucasus enhance security in the region?
No, it would provoke Russia, and NATO would be overextended.
Turkey is a NATO member and is helping the Azerbaijani military get closer to NATO standards. Turkey is also trying actively to bring peace to the South Caucasus. How successful is this work and do you think that closer relations with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia are in NATO’s interest?
I think Turkey plays a positive role in the region, and is preferable to US activities, especially in the Russian view. Indirectly Turkish engagement also favours NATO and promotes stability. Turkish reconciliation with Armenia is especially valuable, also to NATO and the US, but for Russia it's of mixed value, as it needs it less.
How would you comment on recognition of the 'Armenian genocide' by the Swedish parliament? Won’t it harm Swedish-Turkish relations and the improvement of relations between Turkey and Armenia?
The importance of the Swedish parliament's decision should not be exaggerated. There have been several such decisions by other states, and the Swedish government and supporting parties were against it and will try to balance it and to remedy relations with Turkey. The issue of genocide is of course serious, but should be left to historians.
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az