Sat 13 March 2010 | 08:44 GMT Text size:

Vafa Guluzade

News.Az interviews Vafa Guluzade, former state adviser on foreign policy issues and president of the Fund of political studies of Caspian states.

Commander of NATO troops in Europe, US admiral James Stavridis has invited Russia to cooperation in creation of a joint missile defense system with the possible use of the Gabala radar. Is the US-Russian cooperation in Gabala radar station possible?

Moscow has repeatedly offered the joint use of Gabala radar station to Washington, but the United States refused such cooperation. So there must be some reasons for such cooperation to become possible. That is, if Russia fully supports the United States in  the Iranian issue, approves the tough US embargo against Iran, as well as military cooperation against Iran, then it becomes possible. With the Gabala radar station, though  it may be old, it is possible to watch the whole territory of Iran. Americans have enough means to monitor Iran without Russia's help. They have many satellites hanging over Iran, many modern radars on ships and AWACS aircrafts, but the fact of the Russian-American cooperation against Iran costs much. Therefore, even if the United States do not need it in the military sense, they would be happy if Russia cooperates with the United States against Iran and the US agreement on Gabala would be one of the first steps in this type of collaboration . I think that Iran will react very strongly to this. US appearance on the Gabala radar station will affect the Iranian-Russian relations. Therefore, I think that Admiral’s statement is so far a probing the soil. It is not a final solution. This is just an intention and a probing.

If Russia and the United States agree on Gabala, will this not put the primary Iranian threat on Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan is the owner of the Gabala radar station and no cooperation there is possible without Azerbaijan’s consent. And I think in the current situation Azerbaijan will not agree to the US-Russian cooperation in Gabala against Iran. Azerbaijan must not do this. We should not make our southern neighbor angry because we depend on it in many issues.

But Azerbaijan has earlier supported Moscow’s proposal on the joint use of the Gabala radar station by Russia and the United States. Why should this position of Baku change?

Azerbaijan did not support it. It just said it will partake in these negotiations between Russia and the United States. The settlement of this issue is impossible without Azerbaijan’s consent. Azerbaijan had a very diplomatic position. We have not given an unambiguous agreement for their cooperation in Gabala.

Do you think that Azerbaijan will decline Russia’s and US proposal if they agree to cooperate on the Gabala radar station?

I think Azerbaijan will not agree because it should not turn Iran against itself. Iran has very many opportunities to cause damage to Azerbaijan. It can  block the land communication between Baku and Nakhchivan. There are many other levers. Therefore, I think Azerbaijan will not agree to such cooperation.

In this case Azerbaijan may face the pressure of the United States and Russia. What should we do then?

If Russia and the United States give real guarantees of security to Azerbaijan or settle the Karabakh conflict for our country, in this case Azerbaijan may think about it. But these countries do not want to settle the Karabakh conflict. Russia stresses the need to open the Turkish-Armenian border, while the Karabakh issue is a different matter which has nothing to do with the Turkish-Armenian relations. The same opinion is voiced by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who also considers that the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border has nothing to do with the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. I think the attitude of Moscow and Washington to our country is just dishonest. They could set the issue of the resolution of the Karabakh conflict and then raise the problem of border. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have failed to settle the Karabakh conflict through 18 years though they promised to do so.

You have noted that in case the United States and Russia provided guarantees of security to Azerbaijan, Baku could think over the cooperation of these countries in the Gabala radar station. Which guarantees do you imply?

These countries cannot give us any guarantees of security. We are neighbors with Iran and we have a common border. In case Israel and the United States attack Iran, it may launch several missiles in the Baku direction. Thus, the US-Russian cooperation in Gabala radar station lacks prospects. Azerbaijan does not need enmity with Iran. On the contrary, in the current situation Azerbaijan should maintain comprehensive cooperation with Iran.

May it worsen relations of Azerbaijan with these superpowers?

They have already been worsened. Russia occupied 20% of our lands, while the United States turn a blind eye on aggressor Armenia, cooperating with Yerevan and Nagorno Karabakh. Regardless of “good” or “bad” behavior of Azerbaijan, Russia and the United States will settle the Karabakh issue in their own interests when it will be necessary. They do not see us and they do not want to take us into account. They consider that Karabakh is our problem and its frozen state is favorable so far. They will settle it the way they want when necessary.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az