News.Az interviews Rustam Mammadov, a political scientist and expert on Caspian problems.
Baku is hosting the latest meeting on a draft agreement on security cooperation in the Caspian Sea amongst border, customs and interior agencies. What do you expect from this session?
I think this project will be prepared. The issue of security in the Caspian Sea is so serious and so overdue that all five littoral states understand the inevitability of such a document.
I recommended the idea of concluding a document on Caspian security in my monograph “The international and legal status of the Caspian Sea” released in 2006. Politically, this idea was voiced by our presidents, but I substantiated it scientifically. I am very glad that this occurs today because it is ridiculous to speak about any international and legal document on the status of the sea unless the security of the Caspian Sea is ensured. It means that unless the security of the Caspian littoral states is ensured, these countries will be unable to move further and sign a convention on Caspian Sea status. Thank God, the states have managed to come to this and, thank God, the initiative came from Azerbaijan. It's worth noting that the Azerbaijani initiative is accompanied by initiatives from Iran and Kazakhstan and later from Russia. It means that this issue has frequently arisen, but been turned down for one reason or another by different Caspian littoral states. But there has always been a need for this document. The document which is currently under discussion takes into account the experience of the previous documents, that is the Kazakh and Iranian versions, and also takes into account the project to create Caspian rapid response forces. A unique international and legal document on security in the Caspian Sea has been created on this basis. If it is coordinated during the session, a Baku summit of the Caspian states will be held soon. Otherwise, there is no need for the summit. This is the first time in the past four to five years that I have been upbeat about the Caspian, because the countries seem ready to ensure security in the Caspian Sea. The level of threat to the security of the Caspian littoral states is so high that they have already understood that they will have great problems without cooperation amongst all five of them.
You mentioned the high level of threats in the region. What are the threats?
First of all, there is the terror threat. This threat may come from Afghanistan, which is almost uncontrollable today. And the armed groupings there may get to the Caspian basin which could have implications. Second, the US-Iranian confrontation could, of course, affect the situation. It's not clear how Iran and the Americans would behave. This may lead to confrontation in the Caspian basin and not only the Persian Gulf. Third, frequent contacts are more difficult now. For example, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are always unable to negotiate on something. Fourth, there is the confrontation between Russia and the United States. This can also be seen in the Caspian basin. It can be seen in the example of the US Caspian Guard initiative and Russia's CASFOR. Meanwhile, everyone wants things to be done under their flag. This may also have implications. It means that if the Caspian littoral states manage to join efforts, there will be nothing for third countries to do here in the military and political sense. And really, why do third countries need to deal with Caspian basin security issues, if they can be dealt with by the regional countries. It is important that the Caspian States have understood this and realized that their security is interdependent.
If they do not ensure security, third countries will come to the region and this is associated with great threats. The Iranians will always perceive the Americans here as a threat to their security, while the Americans may come here either via Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan. Russia has also been jealous about the appearance of third states in the Caspian basin. In addition, the Americans will have to protect their pipelines and someone will threaten these pipelines, so of course a theatre of hostilities may appear here in future.
Therefore, I think that in order to avert such situations, the Caspian littoral states should concentrate efforts for cooperation. They need to agree on military and political security in this region, on military and political guarantees, non-aggression, demilitarization, the transformation of the Caspian Sea into an area of peace and non-nuclear zone. These issues should be settled by the littoral states. If they settle them amongst themselves, third states will have nothing to do here but trade. In this case, it will be possible to settle the issue of the sea's status and define the legal regulation of cooperation of the Caspian states in different areas. But if everyone attempts to hog the blanket, they will all start looking for allies among the third countries.
There was a declaration in 1971 on turning the Indian Ocean into an area of peace, while in 1976 similar plans were made for the Mediterranean Sea. Nothing was achieved in these cases. But I think it will be possible in the Caspian Sea, because those cases were connected with the open sea and the world ocean where it is difficult to ensure the creation of such a zone, while the Caspian Sea is a closed basin and the Caspian littoral states can and ought to agree among themselves. They have no alternative. If the Caspian states start to arm and create military bases, they may start shooting at each other, occupying the oil establishments and threatening each other.
For many years the littoral states have been unable to agree on the principles for the division of the Caspian into national sectors. This being the case, will they be able to agree on security?
Delimitation, environmental protection and shipping are purely legal issues. If there are no political and military motives, it is very easy to settle all these issues. Iran is currently willing to freeze the process of the final resolution of the sea status by any means, as there are no guarantees of its security. And for this purpose it uses any pretext to hamper the adoption of the legal status, because once it's been adopted Iran will be unable to deny it, while other states will cooperate with third countries and Iran will view this as a military threat to its interests. However, if the littoral states are able to join efforts and launch cooperation in the military and political spheres to create reliable guarantees in the Caspian Sea, the issue will be exhausted.
Does this mean that if the littoral states agree on security, Iran’s claims to 20 percent of the Caspian Sea will disappear?
Under the pretence of its economic interests Iran is dictating its will to other countries, attempting to explain that it is afraid of third countries, especially the Americans. Therefore, Iran does not want them to appear here. This is what Iran is striving for. Iran does not need Caspian oil, it produces enough oil in the Persian Gulf. It is, therefore, necessary to calm Iran and to this end to adopt guarantees of security, non-aggression and prevention of access to third countries. Provision of international guarantees of security is a very serious question. In this case, the situation will be interesting. Azerbaijan also fears Turkmenistan, because the Turkmen can make mistakes which cannot be accepted. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan is afraid of Azerbaijan because the Iranians have given them this idea. Meanwhile, Russia does not trust its southern neighbours. The constant distrust and mutual reproach spoil the process of coordinating positions on Caspian status.
Lala B.
News.Az