Vartan Oskanian

The diplomatic protocols awaiting ratification by the two countries' parliaments have fallen victim to miscalculations on both sides, ex-Foreign Minister of Armenia, Chairman of the Civilitas Foundation Vartan Oskanian said in his article published at the site Project Syndicate.

In his opinion, the Armenians came to believe that Turkey would find a way to reconcile Azerbaijan's interests with the Turkish opening to Armenia, and would open the border with Armenia regardless of progress on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. "The problem is that Turkey initially closed the border precisely because of Nagorno- Karabakh, rather than any bilateral issue. Turkey believed that by signing protocols with Armenia and clearly indicating its readiness to open the border, the Armenians could somehow be cajoled or pressured into resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem more quickly or cede territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. But this has always been unlikely in the absence of a comprehensive settlement that addresses Armenians' greatest fear - security - and fulfils their basic political requirement, namely a definition of Nagorno-Karabakh's status", V. Oskanian said.

Both sides seem to be somewhat surprised by the other's expectations. Indeed, there is a growing fear that a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is more distant now, because Turkey's public backing has raised Azerbaijan's expectations, while some Armenians fear collusion between neighbors out to railroad them into an unsustainable agreement.

V.Oskanian thinks that this is Turkey's moment of truth. "The Armenia-Turkey diplomatic process has stalled, and the Turkish government's effort at reconciliation with the country's large Kurdish minority has soured. Just as a loss of confidence among Kurds and Turks in eastern Turkey will rock the shaky stability that they have recently enjoyed, a loss of hope for a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute may end the tentative military calm between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. But the situation is not irretrievable. Endless public sparring between Turkish and Armenian officials through the media is not helping. It is time for both countries' leaders to speak privately and directly with each other, with an understanding of the instability that could result from any failure to complete the diplomatic opening that the two sides initiated", ex-foreign minister emphasized.

"So, even as Turkey tries to deal with the consequences of its history at home, and redefine the army's role in society, it must reset its tortured relationship with Armenia. The recent resolution passed by the Foreign Relations Committee of the US Congress, which called upon President Obama to ensure that US foreign policy reflects an "appropriate understanding and sensitivity" concerning the Armenian genocide, should serve as a wake-up call to both Turkish and Armenian governments that Armenians are not about to question the historical veracity of the genocide. After all, if France and Germany can face their tortured history, Turkey should be able to do so as well. The two sides must step back, look at the situation dispassionately, acknowledge the deficiencies in the protocols, address the other side's minimum requirements, and bear in mind that a single document will not heal all wounds or wipe out all fears. The international community must support this effort. The problem should not be dismissed as a mere settling of old scores. What is at stake is the future of a region critical to Eurasia's peace, Oskanian resumed.

ArmInfo