Nigar Goksel

How would you comment on the resolution of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee recognizing the killings of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey as 'genocide'?

The approval of the resolution branding the 1915 events as genocide in the foreign affairs committee on 4 March did not come as a surprise to many. It was in fact unexpected that it should have passed with such a narrow margin, 23 to 22 votes. The resolution was passed in this committee in 2000, 2005 and 2007. What is critical is whether the bill will be taken to a general vote or not. The weeks ahead will be used by both sides to put pressure on each other.

The three 'prizes' or threats on the table are: genocide recognition, a Nagorno-Karabakh resolution and the opening of the Turkey-Armenia border. Turkey and the US use these tools to create incentives to break the deadlock - so far it has not worked and arguably it has made the stalemates harder.

The US appears to be threatening Turkey with recognizing 1915 as genocide if Turkey does not open its border with Armenia.

Turkey offers an open border to Armenia in return for compromise on Karabakh and a history commission, which it seems to assume will stall genocide recognition campaigns.

Turkey threatens the US with ending its strategic collaboration if Congress or the president uses the word 'genocide'.

Azerbaijan leverages its natural gas and strategic value in Washington and Ankara to ensure the Turkey-Armenia border remains closed.

It is understandable that each side is trying to 'level the playing field' with the instruments it has at hand. However in some ways, this game does not make much sense. Ultimately none of the 'punishments' in store are in the interests of the countries which threaten to deliver them either. Azerbaijan and its balanced foreign policy will not be better off if its relations with Turkey or the US are severed, the US will not be better off it if passes a genocide resolution which causes the Turkish government to derail the reconciliation process with Armenia and 'realign' its foreign policy in the region. And the US will not benefit from the consequences for Turkey's  domestic or regional  realities if Turkey were to proceed with the protocols to appease Washington. Turkey and the Turkish people will not be better off if the Turkish government decides to explicitly counter US interests out of spite. In fact in all these cases, it will be Russia that wins, and no one else.

Turkey and Armenia have made mistakes as well. The protocol process was not managed transparently enough. The clash of both sides' red lines and expectations was swept under the carpet  which has aggravated the sensitivities and frustrations.

At this point the US is merely helping to make the already complicated regional dynamics even thornier and more politically charged. And ultimately, though Turkey should and will come to terms with its history, this will happen first at the societal level, among civil society and intellectuals. A US imposed border-opening would not help this process, and the wrangling surrounding this policy harms the environment of dialogue.

Do you think Turkey will be able to resist pressure from the US and EU, if Armenia ratifies these protocols?

The Armenian authorities have declared that they will not ratify the protocols unless Turkey does. In fact the law on international agreements has been amended in the Armenian parliament to make it possible for Armenia to withdraw from the protocol agreement before it is ratified.

The Washington leadership is mixing apples and oranges by implying that the 'genocide resolution' can be prevented if the Turkey-Armenia protocols are ratified. But of course this is traditional power politics - so far it looks like it did in years past as spring approached - neither more nor less 'moral'. It is possible that some in Washington want to 'score' a diplomatic victory by getting Turkey and Armenia to 'reconcile'. There may be other issues that Washington feels it needs to keep the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government under pressure about as well.

The EU should stick to what it does best - contributing to Turkey's progress in freedom of expression and minority rights. There are plenty of other more pressing issues on the agenda of Turkey-EU relations - from Cyprus to the Kurdish issue. The EU does not have the leverage to pressure Turkey about relations with Armenia at this point.

The Turkish government cannot afford to appear to be caving in to pressure, therefore it's unlikely that Turkey will ratify the protocols under these circumstances.

Lala.B.
News.Az